Re.: the racist vote, Black and White.
I am going to address this because of a question I was asked on another blog. And I am going to answer it as truthfully as I know how.
There are several blacks at my workplace who have never voted. (I asked.) You bet your a** they are registered, voting and are very aware of what is going on -- this year.
There are a couple blacks who work there that have been registered and vote every election, but the rest are ALL newly registered. I asked. They were happy to tell me.
As gently as I can (and I can do this, because I'm not just some nosy white guy, I'm the guy that talks to them about everything else...), I try to narrow it down, and when it comes down to it, it is not for any other reason, even though they may list it as something else (economics, mad at Bush, etc...). When you ask them in any depth about economics, and why they're mad at Bush - no matter that they didn't register a protest vote in 2004, what prompted them to register this time, it comes back to Obama -- and yet they can't really give a reason why HE inspired them to register. None of them comes out and says "Hey, it's time for a black President."
So, even though it may piss a few of you off, I think that most blacks who are newly registered, especially people who have had the opportunity to register and vote before, are doing it this time because a (partially) black man is running. And that's that.
As far as the anti-black, White, traditionally racist vote, McCain will not benefit from any supposed cross-over vote. From the historically racist areas, and from voters who are already registered, there is gonna be NO substantial group of newly registered voters that are registering simply to vote against Obama. In fact, and I've said this before, the Democrat White racist voters (see WVA, KY, Al, GA, etc...) are simply gonna stay home, or not vote in the Presidential. The 'pubs are not going to see a cross-over vote of any size from these people.
The pollsters are radically wrong if they think this race is close right now. That's not saying it won't get closer, as it always does in the last two weeks, but the newly registered Dem voters are going to have the say in what happens this election, and that say says Obama will be the next President.