As an honest-to-goodness Libertarian, I can and have to say this:
To quote a really awful 80’s song, most ‘pubs are “fooling yourselves”.
As it stands right now, with all the new voters, I am betting an actual Demo lead of somewhere around 10 pts overall and 4-5 points in several key swing-states.
My contention is that the only hope ‘pubs have is that the Dems do not get their voters to the polls…. Of course, as it is Pew, and if you are a 'pub Faithful-Foxer, then you can do your normal thing and discount the messenger, but if the research is right, then there has been a -10 and +4 shift in swing states.
Apart from this whole swing-state shift, the race card will play a big part in the Independent turn-out, and I think it will generate more in both rural and urban areas, with urban winning the numbers battle.
The Demo turnout will be the highest in (recent) history. As it gets closer, they will actually USE the polling for certain states (KY, WVa., Alabama, etc…) to pump up the base and get ‘em up and move 'em out, wooahhhh doggies.
One of my points is that Demos will use the perceived (and in some cases obviously real — see Dem voters in KY and WVa who will never vote for a black man and either stay home or cross over - more likely staying home) racial bias in some areas to pump up the vote in their strongholds and the swing states.
I think that the current polls are inaccurate, and the reality is that Dems lead by a fairly large margin in the popular vote that will result in a smaller but almost insurmountable edge in the swing states and thus the E.C.
Whether it is “swift-boating” or real fact-finding, ‘pubs need some startling revelation that prompts a huge opinion swing -- and I don't see McCrazy doing that well in the debates.
Free cigs and beer will NOT be needed this time (not that there won't be any along with the free bus rides to the polls).
Unless things change radically (like really, man…), Obamaniacs will win big -- and tha's a fac' Jack, unless all you're a-listenin' to is Faux “News” — something that bothers me, until I remember that McCrazy is almost a Democrat, whether or not you don’t believe it….